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Posts Tagged: Economic Data

Housing Maintains Its Market Lead

20171227

Housing has been the one constant since the 2008-2009 recession. Housing has consistently trended higher with activity. 

We’ve seen it in new-home sales. We’ve seen it in new-home starts. Starts, in particular, appear to have moved to a higher plane. 

The Rate Rises – Short Term Loans to be Impacted

20171218

The Federal Reserve fulfilled expectations on Wednesday: It raised the range on the federal funds rate -- an overnight lending rate -- by 25 basis points (a quarter percentage point). Specifically, it raised the range to 1.25% to 1.5%. This was the fifth 25-basis-point increase in the past two years.

Good Times Keep a-Rollin’, Here’s Why

Fall 12-4

Housing has led the economy. Housing leads the economy. The proof is in the data. 

The latest data show sales of new homes surged 6.2% to 685,00 units on an annualized rate in October. The surge lifts the sales pace to its highest point in a decade. It also lifts year-over-year sales growth to 8.9%.

The Normal Rate of Interest over History

Greece

Is the current interest-rate environment a unique environment? 

The answer, in short, is no.

Sydney Homer and Richard Sylla show in their magnum opus A History of Interest Rates that interest rates can remain remarkably sedate (at high or low levels) over a long period. At other times, they can remain remarkably volatile. Over the thousands of years of interest-rate history, it’s all been seen before. 

The Great Roll Off Begins

Charleston

Federal Reserve officials wrapped up their latest meeting (which occurs every six weeks) and announced what most market watchers expected them to announce: The Fed will shrink its massive balance sheet. The balance sheet holds mostly Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) -- roughly $4.5 trillion of them. 

Mortgage Rates Hold at an 8-Month Low (Could Hold Lower)

Piggy Bank

Here we are halfway through 2017 and mortgage rates are where most people expected them NOT to be.

We find quotes across most mortgage products are lower today than before the 2016 election. It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Post-election everyone was sure rates would rise on President Trump’s pro-growth initiatives. These initiatives would co-op a pro-active Federal Reserve continually raising the federal feds rate to quell any inflationary embers. 

At least one aspect of the narrative has materialized. The Fed has continually raised the fed feds rate. The fed funds rate has been increased three times over the past seven months. 

Most everything else, though, has failed to follow the script. The Consumer Price Index runs below the Fed’s desired 2% average annual rate. This is no surprise when you consider that oil, a key input factor, has seen its price drop through most of 2017. Oil trades at the lowest level in 2017. In addition, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at a 2017 low.  Economic growth remains muted. 

Unfortunately, the yield curve suggests a pickup in economic growth won’t occur until the more-distant future.

We’ve seen a gradual flattening of the yield curve in recent weeks. The spread between the five-year and 30-year Treasury yields has dropped below one percentage point. This is the lowest spread since December 2007. The yield on the five-year Treasury note has risen (on falling prices), while the yield on the 30-year Treasury security has fallen (on rising prices). 

Slow-growth and low-inflation expectations and depressed risk appetites are associated with rising long-term bond prices (which cause yields to fall). Instead of the hyped-up economic growth many were expecting to start the second of half of 2017, we’re more likely to see something on par with the sluggish growth that paced the economy for the second half of 2016. 

Money-supply growth is another indicator that points to sluggish growth and low inflation. Last month, money supply grew 5.9% year over year. This is the lowest year-over-year increase since July 2008. 

Drops in money supply measures have historically accompanied a worsening economy. This was the case in the lead up to the 2008 financial crisis and to the dot-com bust before that. Money supply, in turn, is reflective of lending activity. Lower lending activity leads to lower money supply growth. Both are reflective of overall economic activity.

The good news is that lending activity in our neck of the woods continues to hold its own. 

More refinances have been the upshot of falling mortgage rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association Refinance Index was up again last week, with a 2% weekly increase. Purchase applications failed to maintain pace; they were down 1% for the week. But year over year, purchase activity is up 9%. 

Four percent is the prevalent quote nationally on a prime conventional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. If the yield curve continues to flatten, don’t be surprised if 4% gives way to 3.875% in the near future. 

Mortgage Rates Drop Below the 2017 Range

Fed Reserve

We’re all but assured that the Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate (the rate everyone refers to when everyone refers to the Fed raising interest rates) next week. It appears a done deal, and as such, it is priced in market interest rates.

Because the Fed is in rate-raising mood, an uplift in yields on the short end of the yield curve -- the plot of Treasury yields on 1-month to 30-year securities -- has occurred. The slope of the curve remains normal, with each successive yield higher than the next. This is a good shape because it foretells an expanding economy.

The Fed raising rates should influence the short-end of the yield curve first. We’ve seen some uplift in interest paid on certificates of deposits and passbook savings accounts. But the Fed’s actions have had little influence on lending rates.  Quotes on a 5/1 ARM have generally moved lower with quotes on longer-term loans. If you look at the rate charts of the 30-year loan, 15-year loan, and 5/1 ARM, you’ll find that the rates have moved like synchronized swimmers.

The market today is like no other. Banks hold $2 trillion of excess reserves with the Federal Reserve. Before 2008 they held none, because before 2008 the Fed had not paid interest on these reserves.  The Fed raising and lowering the fed funds rate had a discernible influence throughout the yield curve before then. Today, not so much.

Five years ago, we thought quotes of 5%-or-higher on a prime 30-year loan would be the norm. A year ago, we thought 4% would be an opportunity if rates would drift so low. So much for expectations, such is the difficulty in predicting the path of mortgage rates. (Better luck is had predicting the flight path of a butterfly. This applies not only to us, it applies to everybody.)

That said, let’s take advantage of what we’ve got. Refinance applications were up last week, and so, too, were purchase applications. Indeed, purchase apps were up 10% week over week. Perhaps we’ll see an upward surprise in May and June home sales.

Why More People are Choosing Nonbank Mortgages

Main Street

Homeowners and buyers have more mortgage options at their disposal than they may realize. That's truer than ever as a new breed of mortgage lender, known as nonbank lenders, are reshaping the home loan market.

In fact, according to the Washington Post, hundreds of new institutions have come into the fold of the mortgage market, attracting as much or even more business than some of the nation's biggest banks. In 2011, the top five mortgage lenders by market share were all brand-name retail banks. In 2016, this changed dramatically, with one private lender cracking the top three, and a majority of new home loans being underwritten by nonbank lenders.

What nonbank lenders can do

There are many reasons behind this extraordinary shift. Primarily, consumers have discovered they can get better rates and a more personalized level of service through a nonbank lender. But why, exactly?

As explained by Paul Noring, a financial consultant who spoke with the Washington Post, many of these new mortgage lenders deal only in home loans. By focusing on just one product, scrapping traditional banking services like checking accounts, nonbank lenders can save money and pass that onto borrowers.

Borrowers also have been attracted to nonbanks thanks to their faster adoption of new technology and support systems that make the application process easier.

In addition, nonbank lenders are tending toward favoring borrowers who may have been rejected by big banks in past attempts to apply for a mortgage. In the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008, banks became stricter in their mortgage lending requirements, making it more difficult for those with poor credit history to secure a home loan. As nonbank lenders have entered the market, they have also been able to extend loans to more of these borrowers, according to Mortgage News Daily. Credit reporting agencies have also adopted new ways to evaluate credit history that may favor a wider segment of homebuyers.

Through a combination of competitive rates and innovative support systems, nonbank lenders have been instrumental in the revitalization of the U.S. housing market. That's why it shouldn't come as a surprise that more homeowners and buyers are choosing these loans.

Mortgage Rates Settle at 2017 Lows, but for How Long?

Fed Reserve

We could say that mortgage rates are like the weather: We can talk about them, but we can’t do much but talk about them. 

And talk about mortgage rates we do. On that front, mortgage rates drifted lower through most of May; it’s possible they could drift lower still. 

Many market watchers focus on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note and its yield. The yield on this influential security (as it influences the yield on mortgage-backed securities, which, in turn, influence mortgage rates) has dropped to 2.21%. Market watchers who watch the yield charts, tell us that we could see lower mortgage-rate quotes if the yield on the 10-year note falls below 2.17% (which is seen as a technical support floor). 

For now, though, quotes across the mortgage board are near 2017 lows. Rates have trended lower over the spring months. Concurrently, the federal funds rate -- the rate everyone refers to when the Federal Reserve raises rates -- has trended higher and is at a multi-year high. The Fed raised the range on the fed funds rate to 0.75% to 1% in March. The effective rate -- at 1% -- is at the upper boundary of that range.

The fed funds rate is a short-term rate -- it’s the overnight lending rate for commercial banks. The fed funds rate serves as the base rate for most other lending rates. A change in the fed funds rate won’t necessarily move long-term rates (as we’ve seen), but you would it expect it to have some pull over time. So far, it hasn’t had much pull, even with the increasing likelihood we could end the year with the fed funds rate approaching 2% -- a rate unseen in nine years. 

We suspect that the lack of pull is attributable to lack of consumer-price inflation, which runs at 1.5% annually. Inflation expectations exert greater influence on long-term rates than short-term rates. Low inflation expectations are holding long-term rates in check. 

The Fed is expected to raise the range on the fed funds rate to 1%-to-1.25% at its next meeting on June 14. In fact, traders in fed funds rate futures contracts are betting a 90% chance that a rate increase will occur. What’s more, most Fed watchers believe two more increases will occur after a June rate increase.

So, the Fed will likely raise the range on the fed funds rate this month. Contrary to popular perception, though, rising mortgage rates need not follow. Indeed, since the Fed began raising the fed funds rate in December 2015, the increase has generally been followed by a slow decline in mortgage rates. If past is prologue, a further decline in rates is within the realm of possibilities as long as inflation remains muted. 

Builders Cool on Luxury Housing, Target Starter Homes

Starter Homes

While demand from U.S. homebuyers continues to outpace the supply of homes on the market, home builders have made significant progress in closing this gap recently. This is especially true now that a broader swath of the homebuyer market is seeing a prime opportunity to invest, with low interest rates and higher wages prevailing.

As a result, new data show builders and developers are increasingly targeting starter homes for younger homeowners. The Wall Street Journal reported that in the first quarter of 2017, nearly one third of new residential construction by the biggest U.S. building firms consisted of properties smaller than 2,500 square feet. This puts them squarely within range of what is usually considered a starter home. At the same time last year, only 27 percent of new housing fell into this category, with an even smaller 24 percent in 2015.

Trend reversal

With two years of considerable year-over-year growth, homebuilders and buyers are finally bucking a trend that persisted through much of the post-recession housing market recovery. Too many younger, less affluent Americans were unwilling to risk homeownership. At the same time, construction firms faced their own financial troubles, compounded by a shortage of workers. The result was a glut of luxury homes on the market but very few that could be considered starter homes.

Even as demand for all housing types picked up around 2015, the inventory of new and existing homes could not keep pace. This has driven home prices up quickly, a trend that continues - home values were nearly 6 percent higher in February 2017 than one year prior, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.

Still, news of renewed interest in starter homes from buyers and builders adds to the evidence that the U.S. economy overall is growing ever more resilient.

 

Home Sales Hit a Wall

West Coast Inventory Lowest in Nation While Prices Languish Elsewhere