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Posts Tagged: Economic Data

Is Four in Store?

05.14.2018

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hovers just above 3% as we write. It hasn’t hovered this high since December 2013. Rate quotes on a prime 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage hover between 4.625% and 4.75%. They haven’t hovered this high in four years.

More of the Same for Mortgage Rates

05072018

The latest meeting of Federal Reserve officials came and went on Wednesday. The meeting came and went as anticipated. Fed officials held the range on the federal funds rate – an influential overnight lending rate – at 1.5%-to-1.75%.

A New Home on The Range

 Mortgage Trends

The Long-term has arrived sooner than expected.

We have said repeatedly this year that the trend in mortgage rates will be higher over the long term. We offered this opinion last week: “Odds are that mortgage rates will rise longer term. Predicting with accuracy when the short term will give way to the ‘longer term’ is never a sure bet.”

Why the Yield Curve is Suddenly the Center of Attention

Yield Curve

Media commentary on the yield curve has spiked in recent weeks.

So, why all the chatter and why does it matter?

Everything Says Up, But Rates Go Down

 04.16.18

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note drifted lower. The yield hovers around 2.8%. Mortgage rates dipped to their lowest level in two months. This all occurred last week. 

It shouldn’t have occurred. The headline news points to Treasury yields and mortgage rates moving to higher ground. 

The Calm Could Soon End

 Construction

It has been nice over the past couple weeks. 

Mortgage rates have drifted lower, even if they remain range-bound. The 4.5%-to-4.625% range on the prime 30-year fixed-rate loan still holds, as it has held for the past couple months. The good news is that quotes have held mostly at the low-end of the range. 

Investors Lose Their Appetite: How Mortgage Rates Benefitted

 Investor

The headline news appears bullish enough: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was revised 40-basis- points higher to 2.9% for the fourth quarter. Most of what you would want up – consumer spending on durables and nondurables, nonresidential investment, and residential investment – was up.

Mortgage Rates React to the Expected

 Mortgage

Federal Reserve officials came and left on Wednesday.

They came with an interest rate increase. They increased the range on the federal funds rate 25 basis points. The new range is now 1.5%-to-1.75%. (Bloomberg shows a quote of 1.67%.) 

Mortgage Rates Hold Firm, Defy Outsized Payroll Gains

 Rates Steady

February was a blowout month for jobs. Payrolls rose by 313,000, double most economists’ estimates. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% thanks to an increase in formerly discouraged workers (not counted as unemployed in the official numbers) seeking jobs.

More Affordable Than We Think?

 Home Owner

The relentless march higher continues. Home prices continue to post at higher levels, as they have for the past five years. Realtor.com, Case-Shiller, and Trulia data show home prices relentlessly rising across the country month after month.